中国沿海小黄鱼种群动力学及其空间异质性研究     

麻秋云  焦燕  任一平  薛莹 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(10):107-119

小黄鱼是我国近海四种最重要的经济鱼类之一，在过去的几十年中小黄鱼种群及其两个地理亚种群经历了巨大的变化。小黄鱼的种群动力学研究，对于维持这一重要渔业的可持续管理是至关重要的。目前仅有的两个小黄鱼种群动力学模型只涵盖了较短的时间，且没有关注其空间差异。本文研究了1968年至2015年间黄渤海和东海小黄鱼的种群动力学模型，包含和不包含空间分层结构的两种贝叶斯模型被用于分析其种群动力学的大尺度空间异质性。本文分析了不同的假设，来研究小黄鱼种群动力学潜在的变化趋势。研究结果表明小黄鱼种群动力学特征具有明显的时间和空间变化。种群的增长速度从20世纪八十年代开始增加，而可捕系数从1981年到2015年增加了两倍多。与黄渤海亚种群相比，东海的小黄鱼亚种群生长速度更快，遭受的捕捞压力也更大。基于最大可持续产量MSY的参考点表明，无论是整个小黄鱼种群还是两个亚种群，近年来都有非常高的过度捕捞风险。因此我国小黄鱼的渔业管理急需更加保守的管理策略，同时考虑其地域差异。本文所用的方法可以应用于其他种类的资源评估和渔业管理，尤其是具有空间异质性和数据有限的种类。  相似文献   

海州湾4种鱼类生长特征的空间异质性     

王琨  张崇良  王晶  任一平 《海洋学报》2019,41(12):62-70

传统的渔业资源评估均假设鱼类的生长参数是匀质的，然而近年来越来越多的研究表明海洋鱼类生长存在空间异质性。为探究海州湾鱼类生长参数的空间异质性现象，本研究分析了2013–2018年海州湾及其邻近海域方氏云鳚(Pholis fangi)、尖海龙(Syngnatus acus)、小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)和赤鼻棱鳀(Thryssa kammalensis)的空间分布，使用电子体长频率分析方法结合Bootstrap重抽样方法估算了这4种鱼类的生长参数及其在深、浅水区域中的差异。结果显示，这4种鱼类生长参数均表现出一定的空间异质性，其中尖海龙和小黄鱼生长参数的空间异质性表现较为明显。这种差异可能是由于空间上的理化条件、群落结构以及物种本身洄游分布的差异而产生的。  相似文献   

Multiple Unmanned Underwater Vehicles Consensus Control with Unmeasurable Velocity Information and Environmental Disturbances Under Switching Directed Topologies     

Yan  Zhe-ping  Wu  Yi  Liu  Yi-bo  Ren  Hong-liang  Du  Xue 《中国海洋工程》2020,34(5):631-640

China Ocean Engineering - A consensus algorithm proposed in the paper is applied to tackle remarkable problems of unmeasurable velocities, the environmental disturbances, and the limited...  相似文献   

基于拉格朗日拟序结构的黑潮区域海流运输结构提取和分析     

田丰林  任一丹  何遒  陈戈 《海洋学报》2020,42(5):12-21

海流的拉格朗日运动对于研究物质输送有着重要意义，拉格朗日拟序结构(LCSs)作为研究海流结构的新型方法，相比于传统欧拉方法更为客观。本文提出了一种新的计算LCSs束的方法，基于25年的平均速度场，利用变分方法计算得到黑潮区域的气候态LCSs，并通过简化合并的方法得到了气候态LCSs束，该LCSs束能够突出地显示出海流特性和运输模式，其代表的平均拉格朗日环流有很强的约束作用，且具有鲁棒性。最终我们获得了气候态下12个月份的流场结构图，揭示了月周期性拉格朗日环流规律。本文还利用虚拟粒子输运、多年浮标轨迹以及气候态温盐异常3种方法进行了验证，与拉格朗日运输模式相吻合，证明了海流拉格朗日拟序结构的准确性和可靠性。  相似文献   

Perceptions of Land Tenure Security in Rural China: The Impact of Land Reallocations and Certification     

Guangcheng Ren  Xueqin Zhu  Nico Heerink  Ekko van Ierland 《社会与自然资源》2019,32(12):1399-1415

Abstract

Tenure security is commonly recognized as an important factor in stimulating long-term investments in land. Recent studies suggest that a distinction between legal, actual and perceived tenure security needs to be made in analyzing tenure security. This study discusses the relationships between legal, actual and perceived land tenure security in rural China, and empirically examines the impact of actual on perceived land tenure security by applying Probit models to household and village survey data collected in four provinces. Using household expectations about the absence of land reallocations within the next five years as the dependent variable, we find that tenure security is positively affected by the possession of land certificates in villages that periodically reallocated land but not in villages that did not do so. The estimated impact is larger for land certificates issued in the new round of land certification than for land certificates that were issued earlier.  相似文献   

Urbanization effects on climatic changes in 24 particular timings of the seasonal cycle in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River     

Cheng Qian  Guoyu Ren  Yaqing Zhou 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(3-4):781-791

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Analysis of the Stress Wave Effect During Rock Breakage by Pulsating Jets     

Yong Liu  Jianping Wei  Ting Ren 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(2):503-514

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Operational climate prediction in the era of big data in China: Reviews and prospects     

王昕  宋连春  王国复  任宏利  吴统文  贾小龙  吴焕萍  吴捷 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2016,30(3):444-456

Big data has emerged as the next technological revolution in IT industry after cloud computing and the Internet of Things. With the development of climate observing systems, particularly satellite meteorological observation and high-resolution climate models, and the rapid growth in the volume of climate data, climate prediction is now entering the era of big data. The application of big data will provide new ideas and methods for the continuous development of climate prediction. The rapid integration, cloud storage, cloud computing, and full-sample analysis of massive climate data makes it possible to understand climate states and their evolution more objectively, thus predicting the future climate more accurately. This paper describes the application status of big data in operational climate prediction in China; it analyzes the key big data technologies, discusses the future development of climate prediction operations from the perspective of big data, speculates on the prospects for applying climatic big data in cloud computing and data assimilation, and puts forward the notion of big data-based super-ensemble climate prediction methods and computerbased deep learning climate prediction methods.  相似文献   

How does large-scale nudging in a regional climate model contribute to improving the simulation of weather regimes and seasonal extremes over North America?     

Philippe Lucas-Picher  Julien Cattiaux  Alexandre Bougie  René Laprise 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(3-4):929-948

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Occurrence,durée et intensité des précipitations simulées par deux modèles régionaux canadiens du climat sur la région du Maghreb     

Mariem Jelassi  Philippe Gachon  René Laprise 《大气与海洋》2016,54(5):469-497

[Translated by the editorial staff] Simulating the precipitation regime of Northern Africa is challenging for regional climate models, particularly because of the strong spatial and temporal variability of rain events in the region. In this study we evaluate simulations conducted with two recent versions of regional climate models (RCM) developed in Canada: the CRCM5 and CanRCM4. Both are also used in the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)-Africa. The assessment is based on the occurrence, duration, and intensity indices of daily precipitation in Maghreb during the fall and spring seasons from 1998 to 2008. We also examine the links between the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, weather systems, and the precipitation regime over the region. During the rainy season (September to February), the CRCM5 reproduces the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation adequately, as well as the occurrence of days with rain, while the CanRCM4 underestimates precipitation extremes. The study of links between weather systems and the precipitation regime shows that, along the Atlantic coast, precipitation (occurrence, intensity, and wet sequences) increases significantly with storm frequency in the fall. In winter, these links grow stronger going east, from the Atlantic coast to the Mediterranean coast. The negative phases of the NAO index are statistically associated with the increase in rain intensity, extremes, and accumulation along the Atlantic coast in the fall. However, the link weakens in winter over these regions and strengthens along the Mediterranean coast as the precipitation frequency rises during negative phases of the NAO. Both RCMs generally reproduce the links between the NAO and the precipitation regime well, regardless of location.  相似文献